Solar Forces a Change in Behavior

I think it was Nathan Lewis of the California Institute of Technology who first said that solar energy-generated electricity does nothing "new." People already have electricity.  And that is true.  Solar doesn't offer an improvement in capability.  But that's not the real barrier to the public's adoption of solar power.

Most emerging technologies are introduced when their performance is not as well developed as established products.  And in order to become competitive over time, technologies like solar must be refined and improved by a sequence of users (starting with innovators and early adopters).

The key issue here is not that solar is an under-developed technology or that solar provides something people already have.  The key issue is that solar, like many technologies, forces a change in behavior.  With solar you must have panels (or PV material) installed, rather than use a built-in connection to the grid.

A recent survey by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) as reported on Renewable Energy World indicates people are in favor of solar power but would prefer that it is supplied by their utility.  Why would 75% of people surveyed want their utility to install solar?  Because that way they can realize the environmental and renewable benefits of solar, without changing their behavior.

As long as everyone agrees that centralized solar electric power delivered through a grid is the best path to a sustainable future, then our objectives are clear.  We need to focus on utility-scale solar and improve our centralized system of delivery.

However, if distributed generation and residential solar are a better way to go, we need to find a way to get people to change their behavior.  And getting people to change their behavior requires more than just cost reduction and government subsidies.  Encouraging people to change their behavior requires the influence or involvement of preceding groups of people in the marketplace


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The Easy Solar Segments Are Gone

Today's solar markets have exhausted the "easy" segments. Typically, customers exhibit purchase behavior over time that is different at each stage of a market's development. Innovators (typically about 2.5 percent of a market) are often fascinated with new technology. Early adopters (about 13.5 percent of a market) are less fascinated with technology but are often quick to see the potential benefits of something new.

But the great majority of a potential market -- the remaining 85 percent -- is usually not fascinated with solar technology at all. In fact, the most substantial portion of any market may be those who fundamentally dislike technology.

Solar organizations that understand the shift in potential customer focus will recalibrate their marketing. They will concentrate more on the complete (intangible) product and less on the technical specs or "tangible" features.

Developing a complete product means helping the customer focus on how the product will improve his/her future. It requires detailed knowledge of the customer's life and direction, not merely an understanding of the efficiency of a solar cell.

Companies that do not understand this fundamental change will experience an abyss in their growth curves. Once the easy segments of their markets are exhausted, additional sales will come only at the expenditure of substantial resources, and the returns on sales and marketing will decline rapidly.


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The Relative Advantage of Solar

Most business schools still refer to Everett Rogers and his theory of how and why new ideas and technologies are adopted by a population.  In his book called Diffusion of Innovations, Rogers introduces five main dimensions that influence the adoption of an innovation: complexity, compatibility, observability, trial-ability, and relative advantage.

An examination of the last factor, "relative advantage," reveals why there are so many challenges associated with making solar more widespread.

"Relative advantage" is the extent to which solar is viewed as better than the method in current practice.  Fundamentally, a new product or service will be successful if it does a better job than existing products at satisfying the needs of a targeted customer group.  But "doing a better job" actually has four components. If a new product or service can exceed existing offerings across all four of these components at once, then we can guarantee that the targeted customer group will purchase it.

The four components expressed in terms of solar electric power are:

• solar must be less expensive than power from a utility (lower price).
• solar must provide better features or functionality than power from a utility (greater benefits).
• solar must not have any switching or adoption costs (easy to use).
• solar must be readily available (easy to buy).

Customers for whom all four conditions apply will purchase solar because there are only benefits and no barriers. And the closer a solar product comes to succeeding in all four dimensions, the greater the chance that the product will be a success.  And, of course, the new solar product will be a financial success if these conditions can be met at a profit.

The convenience and reliability of utility-delivered electric power makes it very difficult for solar to meet all four criteria. Grid parity alone is clearly not enough.


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How to Differentiate a Commodity

There's a lot of disagreement about whether or not solar is a commodity.  Even if it's not, at some point everyone will need to know how to differentiate a solar product when it becomes a commodity.  I've selected the example of a well-differentiated automobile dealership, to provide insight into how the same concepts can be applied in the solar industry.

Sewell Village Cadillac is the perfect example of a business that has taken a fairly mundane "product" (selling cars) and redefined it into a non-commodity powerhouse.

Sewell goes far beyond the average car dealership: The dealership looks spectacular, starting with lovely chandeliers on the showroom floor and a marvelous floral arrangement that is changed daily.  Stanley Marcus, chairman emeritus of the Neiman-Marcus stores, provides Sewell with merchandising advice and consultation.

As attractive as the Sewell Village showroom floor is, the service bays are even more spectacular.  They truly sparkle, the result of several daily washings and a nightly waxing.  The would-be customer is escorted through both the showroom and the sparkling service bays and then taken to a "preview room."  It is a twelve-by-twelve room off the showroom floor, decorated with lavish antiques.  One sits on a beautifully appointed couch and is treated to a brilliant audio/video presentation.  Only a small part deals with the tangible product (the Cadillac); most describes what it is like to become a member of the "Sewell Village Cadillac Family."  This involves such extras as being given the home phone number of the senior people in the service department.  If your car breaks down, one of them, night or day, will come out with a loaner car which you then keep until yours is repaired.

An organizational development consultant teaches interpersonal dynamics to Carl Sewell's mechanics!

This brief snapshot of the Sewell Village story may provide a bit of a feel for the non-ordinariness of the operation.  The tangible product is, of course, the Cadillac (even though it's no longer a best seller).  The expected product intangibles include such things as Sewell's keeping standard hours and having mechanics available, and perhaps the "loaner car."  The unexpected product intangibles would be: the fresh flowers changed daily, the use of Stanley Marcus as a consultant, the interpersonal dynamics training for the mechanics, the sparkling service bays and so on.  Taken together the "product" has literally been redefined.  Carl Sewel is not selling cars, nor is he selling Cadillacs. He is selling a combination of product, service, ease of doing business with, pleasantness of doing business with, that quite literally redefines the personal transportation/car purchase/service/ownership phenomenon.

The results speak for themselves. Sewell's sales are approximately $100 million; twice the average of most Cadillac dealerships. Plus they have won the Cadillac Master Dealer and Mark of Excellence Award (the award given to the top Cadillac dealer for retail sales and customer satisfaction)...for 35 consecutive years!!!!

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Public Confusion About Solar

There are many things that confuse the public when it comes to solar.  Included on the lengthy list of confusing factors are items such as: incentives, regulations, restrictions, warranties, technology differences and financing options.

But in my mind, the bigger issue comes from the fact that "confusion" translates into "high risk" in the minds of consumers.

Whenever something appears to be more complex or confusing than the status quo (a.k.a. power from the electric utility) most consumers label that item as a source of risk. This perception of risk comes from the potential consequences of making the wrong decision, based on confusing or complex information.

With most consumer products there is little penalty for making a wrong choice. If you buy a pair of blue jeans and they don't look good, the most you've lost is a couple of hours of time and somewhere around $100.

But if a solar installation goes bad, the consumer is looking at losing thousands of dollars, the potential of roof damage/repair, time without electric power, inconvenience, etc., etc.  In other words a massive and costly disruption in their lives.

The perceived risk of solar in the mind of the consumer presents the biggest barrier to mainstream adoption of solar power.


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Is groSolar's new ad campaign the right approach?

groSolar recently announced the launch of a new national advertising campaign that will feature images of real people in real life situations, rather than pictures of solar panels.  According to the company's press release, groSolar's objective is to "communicate the real value of clean energy choices."

This technique is especially common in the healthcare industry.  Doctors, hospitals, clinics, and other providers often show people living a happy, healthy life rather than say, open heart surgery in progress.

The questions is: would you select a surgeon based on pictures of happy people?  Does a value-oriented advertising campaign convince a skeptical audience to buy services from the advertiser?  My answer to these questions would be: not if the product or service is high risk…and solar is perceived as high risk.

Here's the reason why.

Solar requires a complex, information intensive and high risk purchase decision. (Note I said the purchase decision is complex and high risk, not the technology) A solar installation requires a good deal of work on the part of both the consumer and the provider. It is a product/service with a standard base of know-how, but totally customized and personalized. Buyers of solar power want a dealer/installer with a good reputation and would prefer to find one by means of a reference or referral. Information and dialogue are part of the purchase process.  There is the possibility of interaction after the system has been installed and the customer wants to be reassured that he or she can always ask for and receive additional help or information. If the solar installation goes bad, the customer is looking at losing thousands of dollars, the potential of roof damage/repair, time without electric power, and a significant disruption to their life.

With products that are more costly, complicated or high-risk, the customer has more at stake.  So all of the typical methods used in low-risk consumer marketing -- cosmetic factors, product/company name, package color and design, messaging, image, "feel good advertising," celebrity endorsements, logos or symbols to reinforce associations -- are totally ineffective.

The only way to market a high risk offering is with methods that reduce risk in the mind of the customer -- references from someone the customer trusts, professional affiliations, compliance with industry standards, a supporting infrastructure, evidence of expertise, product quality, and ongoing service.

groSolar's ad campaign may raise awareness for the solar industry in general, and that's a good thing. But if the company's goal is to convince customers to buy groSolar's products and services, then advertising is the wrong way to do it.


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The Long Term Effects of Government Subsidies

There's never been a technology that was perfected before it was released.  Technology products like solar are introduced when their performance is not as well developed as established products along some dimension that mainstream customers have historically valued.

In order to become competitive over time technology-based products must be refined and improved by a sequence of users (starting with innovators and early adopters).  This dynamic, called the technology adoption lifecycle, is critical to the success of any new product or technology.  Without the adaptation and improvement that's demanded by early users, mainstream customers (the bulk of any market) will not adopt the product.

This is important because government subsidies often completely disrupt the technology adoption process.  When mainstream buyers of solar begin to enter the market because of a subsidy rather than product attributes, then forward progress on product adaptation tends to stop.

When I surveyed residential solar owners in the Sacramento area I found that the majority of them were late adopters.  That's because the local utility (SMUD) was offering 4 kW systems for only $7 per month. (after 10 years the customer could buy the system for $2400)  SMUD's offering, which included a lot of product intangibles, caused technology laggards to enter the market prematurely.

This subsidy by a utility in Sacramento completely disrupted the normal cycle of adoption that is needed for a market to be sustainable.  And when the subsidy is removed, the market adoption pattern must start over from the very beginning.  This is why government subsidies are so damaging over the long term.  It's more than just a loss of money when the subsidy goes away.  It's also a loss of a key component of sustainable market development: product and buyer evolution.

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