Edison was a Marketing Strategist

Most history books say 1882 was the year the light bulb was invented. This is incorrect. The basic technology had existed for almost 100 years. The reason 1882 is important is because that's when Edison extended the adoption of electric power and light to the early majority. And the methods he used are strategically very important to the solar industry.

Edison’s strategy for accelerating the adoption of electric light was based on minimizing disruption to people's lives. Since gas lamps were the dominant method of indoor lighting, Edison designed his electric lights to look and operate almost identically. His initial electric lights provided 13 watts of light, almost the same as the 12-watt gas lamps he wanted to replace. The new electric lamps looked almost exactly like those same gas lamps.

Recognizing that many commercial and residential landowners in New York had invested considerable capital in gas infrastructure to light their buildings, Edison chose to run his first electrical wires through existing gas lines, fitting directly into the system people already understood for the delivery of light.

Edison’s technology was new, but the form and function were decades old.

But Edison's most ingenious strategy was in selecting the location of his first customers -- financial institutions in lower Manhattan. Seeing the windows of the financial district aglow by night demonstrated electric lighting technology to the metro population living across the Hudson River in New Jersey.

Because the financial community was seen as a credible source of innovative building technology, Edison helped meet the reference requirements of early adopters, who then shared the idea with their local communities. This endorsement of electric power and light, by demonstrating its use in a visible location, had tremendous influence on the rest of the country.

Who should the solar industry be using as a credible reference?


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Does Grid Parity Matter?

One of the primary assumptions in the solar industry is: "if the cost of something gets low enough, everyone will automatically buy it." In my mind there is no guarantee that solar power will become mainstream when it costs approximately the same, or even less than conventional sources.

Here's why. Even with lower and lower cost per watt, solar power is missing two key elements of market expansion: product intangibles and a compelling reason to buy.

Consider what happened with the personal computer (PC). Not only did prices go down (and performance went up) but MANY other things helped make the PC a mainstream appliance. One of the biggest factors was the addition of IBM's backing and reputation to the desktop computing industry (does anyone remember the so-called "IBM compatible PC" standard?) IBM's blessing along with other "standards" such as the DOS operating system and the ISA/EISA bus (i.e. product intangibles) all combined to reduce the perceived risk of buying a PC.

But the most powerful factor in PC market development was a compelling application called the spreadsheet. Early spreadsheet software (Lotus 1-2-3 and Context MBA) running on the PC provided a quantum leap in capability over the existing ways of manipulating numbers…with adding machines, calculators, pens, pencils and sheets of paper.

It's true there are future benefits associated with solar such as greater environmental health and sustainability, but that's like selling green bananas. The promise that someday a green banana will turn yellow is not compelling enough.

In the solar industry, there are few if any risk-lowering product intangibles (who's the IBM of solar?) and the compelling "mainstream" reason to buy hasn't been sufficiently articulated yet. So when solar reaches grid parity, it will provide something that people already get from a utility…electric power for the same price. There's no quantum leap in capability or extraordinary advantage above what a utility already offers. Plus, there's no need to install a bunch of complex equipment when power comes from the grid.

Without risk-lowering standards or intangibles, and a compelling reason to buy, the solar industry needs to use reference-based techniques to overcome these missing elements of market expansion. (more about this in future posts)

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Credibility and Market Leadership

The most important quality a growing solar company needs for rapid market access and positive competitive positioning is credibility. Credibility can be gained by inference, reference or evidence.

• Inference is often used by startups to gain recognition. Who invests in a company is often more important than how much is invested.  Much of the initial interest in Genentech was stimulated by the involvement of Kleiner, Perkins Caufield & Byers. Similarly, the interests of Venrock Associates and Sequoia Capital in Apple Computer provided "larger than reality" credibility. The quality of investors and directors, along with the backgrounds of initial employees say a lot about the company to the marketplace.
• Reference, or word-of-mouth, is the most important credibility-building tool an emerging company can use. Almost all computers, from personal to mainframes, are still bought because of word-of-mouth. All service-based businesses are word-of-mouth. And, in all segments of the high-technology industry, there are networks of analysts, industry experts, BOS and supporting product producers, and bloggers/journalists who spread the word.  Moreover, potential customers understand and rely on word-of-mouth to determine a new company's credibility.
• Evidence is the third factor that builds credibility. Satisfied customers are essential. But the most visible reinforcing evidence is growth and profits from the business. This falls under the category of "If you're so good, why aren't you making money?" Many solar companies suffer from lack of evidence of financial success because they believe only public companies disclose results.

Other kinds of evidence exist, of course. These include clearly differentiated product performance, market share growth, significant products, the quality of initial customers, and the company's alliance partners, along with the quality of investors. All of these can be tangible evidence of credibility.

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Solar Customers are Changing

The Technology Adoption Lifecycle and the Principle of Disruptive Innovation share at least two fundamental attributes.  First, both models describe market development in terms of the changing nature of the user rather than the product.  Using similar terminology, both suggest that products are initially used by early customers who base their purchase decisions primarily on the product’s functionality.  Then, once the demand for functionality has been met, vendors must begin to address the need for reliability that is demanded by an initial wave of mainstream buyers.  A third phase of growth occurs when market followers and conservatives require that vendors meet their needs for convenience.  The final group is mostly concerned with price.

Another shared attribute is, despite a track record of proven success, both models are counterintuitive to most business managers.  When struggling for survival, a solar organization will find it incongruous to focus on the peculiar or specialized needs of a small group of potential buyers, before addressing the more common needs of larger groups.  Too often managers attempt to serve an entire market all at once, and unintentionally delay the market transformation process.

The inescapable task of winning over a sequence of buyer types, combined with the necessity of promoting intangible benefits tailored to the user’s point-of-view, form the cornerstones of market transformation.  These principles have repeatedly guided new products and companies to the achievement of mainstream market acceptance and commercial success.  Much of the history and experience behind these models can be translated into helpful guidance for the solar industry.


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Solar Marketing Lessons, Learned in the First Grade

Most of us learned at a very early age that it's not a good idea to kick sand in the face of the biggest kid in school.  Unless you enjoyed getting pounded into the ground like a tomato stake, the best strategy on the playground was to avoid direct, physical confrontation.

This simple lesson in life also applies to the practice of marketing.

The number one rule of marketing is never attack an entrenched competitor in his or her area of greatest strength with an emerging technology. (especially not with an emerging technology like solar)

Yet that is exactly what many people in the solar industry actually do!

Hardly a week goes by without a solar vendor, clean energy lobbyist, solar advocate, industry analyst, PR agency or marketing organization proclaiming that the solar industry needs to emphasize "reliability."  Well like it or not, reliability is a key strength of solar's biggest competitor…the electric utility industry.  Using a less traumatic metaphor this time, claiming reliability as an advantage of solar is like challenging Lance Armstrong to a race immediately after learning to ride a bicycle.

Not only does solar provide something that people already have (electricity), but their current supplier (the electric utility industry) has created an enduring public perception of being the most reliable source of electric power.  For more than 70 years, Reddy Kilowatt served as the official mascot of the electric power industry, and in the process became a permanent symbol of our culture.  Reddy represents specific characteristics and attributes that are the competitive strengths of all electric utilities -- reliability, unlimited capacity, plug-in ready, and constant availability.

Utilities are the 900 pound gorilla of the electric supply "playground" and power from the grid is perceived by the public as the safest, most reliable choice.

Those of us in the solar industry know that PV is in fact very reliable.  But utilities have already captured the reliability square on the game board.  They own that part of the playground. And it's a waste of time and money trying to compete against a public perception, built over 70+ years, that utility power is the most reliable.  There are many other areas in which to successfully compete against electric utilities.

One more thing.  Next time you are playing basketball at the local gymnasium, don't challenge Shaquille O'Neill to a game of one-on-one.  The results won't be pretty.


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The Illusion of Cost Per Watt

We have seen many times that a reduction in price often accompanies the acceptance of a product in the marketplace. But it is incorrect to assume that lower price will lead to mainstream market acceptance, or that any technology-based product would be widely used and adopted if its cost was low enough?

Price reduction alone does not guarantee mainstream acceptance.

Take for example global positioning systems or "GPS." Most observers would say a dramatic reduction in average selling price during the late 1980's was responsible for the increased acceptance of GPS in the marketplace.

However, several other factors were equally important in leading to the transformation of the GPS market. For GPS, the intangible drivers of market acceptance were:

• the U.S. government's decision to make GPS available to the public
• Magellan and several other manufacturers started shipping commercially available GPS products (1989)
• the U.S. government announcement that GPS will be "free" for 15 years (1991)
• addition of a 24th satellite to complete the GPS support infrastructure (1995)
• the announcement that GPS will be free for the foreseeable future (1996)

Every one one of these events lowered the risk of purchase/adoption for prospective customers.

Pragmatic and conservative buyers in a market wait for: the availability of a standard product designed to specifically meets their needs, that is made by a leading supplier who sells the product through someone familiar. Despite evidence to the contrary, low price does not exclusively drive market transformation.

This misunderstanding is especially common in solar power and renewable energy. There is no guarantee solar power will become mainstream when it costs approximately the same as conventional sources.

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Branding Only Works on Cattle

I'm all in favor of promoting solar and raising awareness for renewable energy.  It doesn't matter if it's with buttons, bumper stickers, social media (twitter, facebook etc.), web sites or search engine marketing (seo).  The more the better.

But never forget that solar power is seen as a riskier than the alternative -- power supplied by the local utility.  This perception of risk comes from the fact that solar is more complex, installation is not as simple, solar costs more, and most solar dealers/installers are smaller, unknown companies (at least compared to the local utility).

So don't expect people to seriously consider buying solar based on a promotional button, twitter or bumper stickers.

Think of it this way:  If you had a serious heart condition and needed surgery, would you select a surgeon based on something you saw on a bumper sticker or read on Twitter?  I know I wouldn't.

I would look at a surgeon's reputation, ask for recommendations from other doctors, determine which hospital the surgeon is affiliated with, investigate the surgeon's credentials and formal training, and definitely talk with patients who have had a similar prognosis.

Solar isn't a life or death proposition like heart surgery, but the trusted sources of information needed by buyers to reduce risk when making a high-risk decision do not include promotional materials developed by the vendor.

Promotional content does NOT help the customer lower their perception of risk in buying solar. And branding only works on cattle.

Marketing solar (which is higher risk) the same way that Coke markets soft drinks (little or no risk) is one of the reasons the solar industry has such a hard time breaking into mainstream markets.


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